Project description:Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO2 emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO2 emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO2 emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO2 emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO2 emissions in the U.S. power sector.
Project description:COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented reduction in demand for energy for transportation and electricity, a crash in prices and employment in the fossil fuel industries and record-breaking reductions in global carbon emissions. This paper discusses whether this "demand destruction" could spell the beginning of the end for fossil fuels or a temporary recession and the imperative to recover from the current crisis by "building back better" and not the same as before. There are encouraging signs for the renewable energy industry that could make COVID-19 a cloud with a silver lining; whether this is the case will depend not only on the technological realities and social response to the crisis but also on political will and foresight.
Project description:The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on human and vehicular mobility on the number of roadkills of wild mammals, and roe deer in particular, was assessed in Lithuania. We statistically analyzed the distribution of all mammals and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) as the most abundant species annually from 2002 to 2022 and monthly from 2020 to 2021, including during the two restriction periods. Notably, there was a marked decrease in roadkill incidents on main, national and regional roads, particularly in April-May 2020 (the beginning of lockdown period I) and November-December 2020 (the beginning of lockdown period II), 5.1-20.8% and 33.6-54.4%, respectively. During these months, collisions with mammals on the A14 main road were reduced by 75-90%. However, there was a significant increase in the number of roadkills in urban areas, resulting in the total number of mammal-vehicle and roe deer-vehicle collisions in 2020 and 2021 being higher than expected based on long-term trends. However, after restrictions were eased, collision numbers with wildlife on the main, national and regional roads increased again and became higher than expected.
Project description:Background and objectivesThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic stretched our limits-physically, mentally, and economically. However, some older adults report that it led to positive changes. This study aims to understand whether prepandemic resilience, education, or income predicted older adults' subsequent likelihood of reporting positive changes in their lives during the pandemic.Research design and methodsWe use data from the National Social Life, Heath, and Aging Project, an ongoing panel study with a COVID-19 ancillary supplement (N = 2,650).ResultsThe study results aligned with the fundamental cause theory. In demographically adjusted models including resilience, education, and income, as well as the effect of the pandemic on employment and a COVID-disruption score, the odds of reporting any positive change were 2.6 times higher for those with an associate degree (p < .01) and 4.7 times higher for those with a bachelor's or higher (p < .001), compared to those without a high school degree. In contrast, neither resilience nor income was significantly associated with endorsing a positive change. We also categorize specific changes thematically coded from open-ended responses and examine their demographic distributions. Categories include spirituality, home organization, hygiene practices, and increased quality time with others.Discussion and implicationsThese findings show that older adults with more education could navigate COVID-19 challenges in a way that improved their perspectives on at least one aspect of their lives.
Project description:Current environmental and climate changes are having a pronounced influence on the outcome of plant-pathogen interactions, further highlighting the fact that abiotic stresses strongly affect biotic interactions at various levels. For instance, physiological parameters such as plant architecture and tissue organization together with primary and specialized metabolism are affected by environmental constraints, and these combine to make an individual plant either a more or less suitable host for a given pathogen. In addition, abiotic stresses can affect the timely expression of plant defense and pathogen virulence. Indeed, several studies have shown that variations in temperature, and in water and mineral nutrient availability affect the expression of plant defense genes. The expression of virulence genes, known to be crucial for disease outbreak, is also affected by environmental conditions, potentially modifying existing pathosystems and paving the way for emerging pathogens. In this review, we summarize our current knowledge on the impact of abiotic stress on biotic interactions at the transcriptional level in both the plant and the pathogen side of the interaction. We also perform a metadata analysis of four different combinations of abiotic and biotic stresses, which identifies 197 common modulated genes with strong enrichment in Gene Ontology terms related to defense . We also describe the multistress-specific responses of selected defense-related genes.
Project description:Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3-11% historically to 10-20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.
Project description:BackgroundHealth-seeking behaviors change during pandemics and may increase with regard to illnesses with symptoms similar to the pandemic. The global reaction to COVID-19 may drive interest in vaccines for other diseases.ObjectivesOur study investigated the correlation between global online interest in COVID-19 and interest in CDC-recommended routine vaccines.Design, settings, measurementsThis infodemiology study used Google Trends data to quantify worldwide interest in COVID-19 and CDC-recommended vaccines using the unit search volume index (SVI), which estimates volume of online search activity relative to highest volume of searches within a specified period. SVIs from December 30, 2019 to March 30, 2020 were collected for "coronavirus (Virus)" and compared with SVIs of search terms related to CDC-recommended adult vaccines. To account for seasonal variation, we compared SVIs from December 30, 2019 to March 30, 2020 with SVIs from the same months in 2015 to 2019. We performed country-level analyses in ten COVID-19 hotspots and ten countries with low disease burden.ResultsThere were significant positive correlations between SVIs for "coronavirus (Virus)" and search terms for pneumococcal (R = 0.89, p < 0.0001) and influenza vaccines (R = 0.93, p < 0.0001) in 2020, which were greater than SVIs for the same terms in 2015-2019 (p = 0.005, p < 0.0001, respectively). Eight in ten COVID-19 hotspots demonstrated significant positive correlations between SVIs for coronavirus and search terms for pneumococcal and influenza vaccines.LimitationsSVIs estimate relative changes in online interest and do not represent the interest of people with no Internet access.ConclusionA peak in worldwide interest in pneumococcal and influenza vaccines coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in February and March 2020. Trends are likely not seasonal in origin and may be driven by COVID-19 hotspots. Global events may change public perception about the importance of vaccines. Our findings may herald higher demand for pneumonia and influenza vaccines in the upcoming season.
Project description:PurposeThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has propelled health care workers to the front lines against the pandemic. In addition to anxiety related to infection risks, trainees have the additional burden of learning and career planning while providing care in an uncertain and rapidly changing environment. We conducted a survey to evaluate the practical and psychosocial impact on radiation oncology fellows during the first month of the pandemic.Methods and materialsA 4-part survey was designed and distributed to the fellows in our program. The survey was designed to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on scope of activity and well-being ("Impact on You") and to identify key lessons learned and social factors ("About You") using Likert scales and open-ended response options. The survey included items from the Oldenburg Burnout questionnaire.ResultsA total of 17 participants (71%) responded to the survey. Although there was a significant reduction in the mean time spent on in-person clinics (13.5 h/wk [pre-COVID] vs 9.3 h/wk [3 weeks into the COVID emergency response]; P = .002), this was replaced by virtual consults and other COVID-related activities. The proportion of respondents demonstrating features of burnout in the domains of "disengagement" and "exhaustion" was 71% and 64%, respectively. However, there was also evidence of resilience, with 47% respondents "feeling energized." Top "concerns" and "negative changes" identified related to learning, infection risk and safety, patient care, coping, and concerns about their home country. Top "positive changes" highlighted include work culture, appreciation for leadership caring for the team, the insistence on evidence to guide change, and the implementation of virtual health care.ConclusionsNegative impact needs to be anticipated, acknowledged, and managed. We anticipate understanding the positives that have emerged under these extraordinary circumstances is the "silver lining" of the pandemic, giving us tools and the best leverage to plan for the future.