Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy: The role of local and interventional factors in the control of the epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Containment measures have been applied in several countries in order to limit the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. The scope of this study is to analyze the evolution of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic throughout Italy and factors associated to the different way it spread in the Italian Regions, starting from the day that the first indigenous cases were detected through day 81 (6 days after the end of the strict lockdown). Data were obtained from daily reports and are represented as number (and percentage) of cases/100,000 persons. A lockdown with movement restrictions, especially across Regions, was declared at day 20. At day 81, 219,070 cases (363/100,000 persons) were diagnosed. A regression analysis based on the Gompertz model predicts a total number 233,606 cases (386/1

SUBMITTER: Lilleri D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7660511 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature