Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal yield forecasts are important to support agricultural development programs and can contribute to improved food security in developing countries. Despite their importance, no operational forecasting system on sub-national level is yet in place in Tanzania. We develop a statistical maize yield forecast based on regional yield statistics in Tanzania and climatic predictors, covering the period 2009-2019. We forecast both yield anomalies and absolute yields at the sub-national scale about 6 weeks before the harvest. The forecasted yield anomalies (absolute yields) have a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.72 (0.79) in the out-of-sample cross validation, which corresponds to a median root mean squared error of 0.13 t/ha for absolute yields. In addition, we perform an out

SUBMITTER: Laudien R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7665066 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature