A Comparative Analysis of Statistical Methods to Estimate the Reproduction Number in Emerging Epidemics, With Implications for the Current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic continues its rapid global spread, quantification of local transmission patterns has been, and will continue to be, critical for guiding the pandemic response. Understanding the accuracy and limitations of statistical methods to estimate the basic reproduction number, R0, in the context of emerging epidemics is therefore vital to ensure appropriate interpretation of results and the subsequent implications for control efforts.

Methods

Using simulated epidemic data, we assess the performance of 7 commonly used statistical methods to estimate R0 as they would be applied in a real-time outbreak analysis scenario: fitting to an increasing number of data points over time and with varying levels

SUBMITTER: O'Driscoll M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7665402 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature