Predicting the local COVID-19 outbreak around the world with meteorological conditions: a model-based qualitative study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

This study aims to investigate the relationship between daily weather and transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2, and to develop a generalised model for future prediction of the COVID-19 spreading rate for a certain area with meteorological factors.

Design

A retrospective, qualitative study.

Methods and analysis

We collected 382 596 records of weather data with four meteorological factors, namely, average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and air visibility, and 15 192 records of epidemic data with daily new confirmed case counts (1 587 209 confirmed cases in total) in nearly 500 areas worldwide from 20 January 2020 to 9 April 2020. Epidemic data were modelled against weather data to find a model that could best predict the future outbreak.

Results

SUBMITTER: Chen B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7670553 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature