Toward a better multi-model ensemble prediction of East Asian and Australasian precipitation during non-mature ENSO seasons.

ABSTRACT: An effective and reliable way for better predicting the seasonal Australasian and East Asian precipitation variability in a multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction system is newly designed, in relation to the performance of predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact. While ENSO is a major predictability source of global and regional precipitation variation, the prediction skill of precipitation is not solely due to typical ENSO alone, of which variability and predictability exhibit strong seasonality. The first mode of ENSO variability has large variance with high prediction skill for boreal winter and small variance with low skill for spring and summer, while the second mode shows the opposite phase. The regional prediction skills for Australasian and East Asian precipita

SUBMITTER: Sohn SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7679460 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature