Project description:The aim of the article is to compare health system outcomes in the BRICS countries, assess the trends of their changes in 2000-2017, and verify whether they are in any way correlated with the economic context. The indicators considered were: nominal and per capita current health expenditure, government health expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and composition of GDP. The study covered five countries of the BRICS group over a period of 18 years. We decided to characterize countries covered with a dataset of selected indicators describing population health status, namely: life expectancy at birth, level of immunization, infant mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, and tuberculosis case detection rate. We constructed a unified synthetic measure depicting the performance of individual health systems in terms of their outcomes with a single numerical value. Descriptive statistical analysis of quantitative traits consisted of the arithmetic mean (xsr), standard deviation (SD), and, where needed, the median. The normality of the distribution of variables was tested with the Shapiro-Wilk test. Spearman's rho and Kendall tau rank coefficients were used for correlation analysis between measures. The correlation analyses have been supplemented with factor analysis. We found that the best results in terms of health care system performance were recorded in Russia, China, and Brazil. India and South Africa are noticeably worse. However, the entire group performs visibly worse than the developed countries. The health system outcomes appeared to correlate on a statistically significant scale with health expenditures per capita, governments involvement in health expenditures, GDP per capita, and industry share in GDP; however, these correlations are relatively weak, with the highest strength in the case of government's involvement in health expenditures and GDP per capita. Due to weak correlation with economic background, other factors may play a role in determining health system outcomes in BRICS countries. More research should be recommended to find them and determine to what extent and how exactly they affect health system outcomes.
Project description:Literature suggests that urban regeneration policies might contribute towards improving mental health of residents, but to date there is a lack of empirical research on how these policies and downward social mobility can interact and influence health outcomes. The current study aims to explicitly test whether regeneration policies implemented in deprived Andalusian urban places (southern Spain) moderate the use of anxiolytics and/or antidepressants, taking into consideration families' downward social mobility during the recent period of economic crisis in Spain. We designed a post intervention survey to retrospectively compare the evolution of psychotropic drug consumption in target and comparison areas. We observe a general increase in the use of anxiolytics and/or antidepressants from 2008 to 2015, specifically for people in whose families the economic crisis had the greatest impact (odds ratio = 2.18; p value < 0.001). However, better evolution is observed among residents of the target areas compared with residents of similar urban areas where this kind of polices have been not in force (odds ratio = 0.50; p value < 0.05). Therefore, urban regeneration policies might act as moderators of the risk of mental health, particularly when people are subject to the loss of individual/family resources in urban vulnerable contexts.
Project description:Even though formal education is considered a key determinant of individual well-being globally, enrollment in secondary schooling remains low in many low- and middle-income countries, suggesting that the perceived returns to such schooling may be low. We jointly estimate survival and monetary benefits of secondary schooling using detailed demographic and surveillance data from the Boucle du Mouhoun region, Burkina Faso, where national upper secondary schooling completion rates are among the lowest globally (<10%). We first explore surveillance data from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1992 to 2016 to determine long-term differences in survival outcomes between secondary and higher and primary schooling using Cox proportional hazards models. To estimate average increases in asset holdings associated with secondary schooling, we use regionally representative data from the Burkina Faso Demographic Health Surveys (2003, 2010, 2014, 2017-18; N = 3,924). Survival was tracked for 14,892 individuals. Each year of schooling was associated with a mortality reduction of up to 16% (95% CI 0.75-0.94), implying an additional 1.9 years of life expectancy for men and 5.1 years for women for secondary schooling compared to individuals completing only primary school. Relative to individuals with primary education, individuals with secondary or higher education held 26% more assets (SE 0.02; CI 0.22-0.30). Economic returns for women were 3% points higher than male returns with 10% (SE 0.03; CI 0.04-0.16) vs. 7% (SE 0.02; CI 0.02-0.012) and in rural areas 20% points higher than in urban areas with 30% (SE 0.06; CI 0.19-0.41) vs. 4% (SE 0.01; CI 0.02-0.07). Our results suggest that secondary education is associated with substantial health and economic benefits in the study area and should therefore be considered by researchers, governments, and other major stakeholders to create for example school promotion programs.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Economic development is often evoked as a driving force that has the capacity to improve the social and health conditions of remote areas. However, development projects produce uneven impacts on local communities, according to their different positions within society. This study examines the spatial distribution of three major health threats in the Brazilian Amazon region that may undergo changes through highway construction. Homicide mortality, AIDS incidence and malaria prevalence rates were calculated for 70 municipalities located within the areas of influence of the Cuiabá-Santarém highway (BR-163), i.e. in the western part of the state of Pará state and the northern part of Mato Grosso. RESULTS: The municipalities were characterized using social and economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), urban and indigenous populations, and recent migration. The municipalities' connections to the region's main transportation routes (BR-163 and Trans-Amazonian highways, along with the Amazon and Tapajós rivers) were identified by tagging the municipalities that have boundaries crossing these routes, using GIS overlay operations. Multiple regression was used to identify the major driving forces and constraints relating to the distribution of health threats. The main explanatory variables for higher malaria prevalence were: proximity to the Trans-Amazonian highway, high proportion of indigenous population and low proportion of migrants. High homicide rates were associated with high proportions of migrants, while connection to the Amazon River played a protective role. AIDS incidence was higher in municipalities with recent increases in GDP and high proportions of urban population. CONCLUSIONS: Highways induce social and environmental changes and play different roles in spreading and maintaining diseases and health threats. The most remote areas are still protected against violence but are vulnerable to malaria. Rapid economic and demographic growth increases the risk of AIDS transmission and violence. Highways connect secluded localities and may threaten local populations. This region has been undergoing rapid localized development booms, thus creating outposts of rapid and temporary migration, which may introduce health risks to remote areas.
Project description:ObjectiveTo describe the health and economic consequences of smoking model, a user friendly, web based tool, designed to estimate the health and economic outcomes associated with smoking and the benefits of smoking cessation.ResultsAn overview of the development of the model equations and user interface is given, and data from the UK are presented as an example of the model outputs. These results show that a typical smoking cessation strategy costs approximately 1200 pounds sterling per life year saved and 22,000 pounds sterling per death averted.ConclusionsThe model successfully captures the complexity required to model smoking behaviour and associated mortality, morbidity, and health care costs. Furthermore, the interface provides the results in a simple and flexible way so as to be useful to a variety of audiences and to simulate a variety of smoking cessation methods.
Project description:This commentary considers the positive and negative consequences of early economic modelling and explores potential future directions. Early economic modelling offers device manufacturers an opportunity to assess the potential value of an innovation at an early stage of development. Early modelling can direct resources into potentially viable technologies and reduce investment in technologies with limited prospect of value. However, it is unclear whether early modelling is sufficiently specific to identify innovations with low value. It may be that early modelling is more useful for directing data gathering to reduce decision uncertainty. Early modelling is of primary benefit to the manufacturer and may have both positive and negative consequences for reimbursement processes that should be considered.
Project description:Preterm birth, defined as birth before the gestational age of 37 weeks, affects 11% of the newborns worldwide. While extensive research has focused on the immediate complications associated with prematurity, emerging evidence suggests a link between prematurity and the development of kidney disease later in life. It has been demonstrated that the normal course of kidney development is interrupted in infants born prematurely, causing an overall decrease in functional nephrons. Yet, the pathogenesis leading to the alterations in kidney development and the subsequent pathophysiological consequences causing kidney disease on the long-term are incompletely understood. In the present review, we discuss the current knowledge on nephrogenesis and how this process is affected in prematurity. We further discuss the epidemiological evidence and experimental data demonstrating the increased risk of kidney disease in these individuals and highlight important knowledge gaps. Importantly, understanding the intricate interplay between prematurity, abnormal kidney development, and the long-term risk of kidney disease is crucial for implementing effective preventive and therapeutic strategies.
Project description:BackgroundChronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a leading public health problem, with substantial burden and economic implications for healthcare systems, mainly due to renal replacement treatment (RRT) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The aim of this study is to develop a multistate predictive model to estimate the future burden of CKD in Chile, given the high and rising RRT rates, population ageing, and prevalence of comorbidities contributing to CKD.MethodsA dynamic stock and flow model was developed to simulate CKD progression in the Chilean population aged 40 years and older, up to the year 2041, adopting the perspective of the Chilean public healthcare system. The model included six states replicating progression of CKD, which was assumed in 1-year cycles and was categorised as slow, medium or fast progression, based on the underlying conditions. We simulated two different treatment scenarios. Only direct costs of treatment were included, and a 3% per year discount rate was applied after the first year. We calibrated the model based on international evidence; the exploration of uncertainty (95% credibility intervals) was undertaken with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.ResultsBy the year 2041, there is an expected increase in cases of CKD stages 3a to ESKD, ceteris paribus, from 442,265 (95% UI 441,808-442,722) in 2021 to 735,513 (734,455-736,570) individuals. Direct costs of CKD stages 3a to ESKD would rise from 322.4M GBP (321.7-323.1) in 2021 to 1,038.6M GBP (1,035.5-1,041.8) in 2041. A reduction in the progression rates of the disease by the inclusion of SGLT2 inhibitors and pre-dialysis treatment would decrease the number of individuals worsening to stages 5 and ESKD, thus reducing the total costs of CKD by 214.6M GBP in 2041 to 824.0M GBP (822.7-825.3).ConclusionsThis model can be a useful tool for healthcare planning, with development of preventive or treatment plans to reduce and delay the progression of the disease and thus the anticipated increase in the healthcare costs of CKD.
Project description:IntroductionAcute kidney injury (AKI) prevalence in the UK is estimated to be approximately 20% of all emergency admissions. Complications of AKI have a huge impact on health care costs. Most studies that have researched the economic costs of AKI have used macro-level costing using national tariffs and applying this to hospital episode statistics.MethodsThe Acute Kidney Outreach to Reduce Deterioration and Death (AKORDD) study was a pilot study that tested the provision of early specialist advice to improve outcomes for patients with AKI. As part of this prospective study, we undertook a health economics substudy that involved micro-costing to help more accurately define the total cost per patient.ResultsWe found that the total cost of providing an AKI alert system and an outreach service (intervention group) was lower than current practice (control group) for patients with AKI. Overall, an episode of AKI that required inpatient care costs approximately £5000 over 12 months, which is somewhat higher than previous UK estimates. Although it was feasible to collect the required complex dataset needed to conduct a health economics analysis of an outreach service, significant amounts of time and resources needed to be dedicated to this endeavor.ConclusionWe showed that it is possible to demonstrate a clearer, more detailed picture of the prolonged economic costs of AKI for a health care system, as part of a substudy of a larger trial. A larger scale, randomized controlled trial of AKI outreach is needed, with a prospective full economic evaluation conducted alongside the trial.
Project description:BackgroundDuring the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, US unemployment rates rose to historic highs, and they remain nearly double those of prepandemic levels. Employers are the most common source of health insurance among nonelderly adults. Thus, job loss may lead to a loss of health insurance and reduce access to cancer screening. This study examined associations between unemployment, health insurance, and cancer screening to inform the pandemic's potential impacts on early cancer detection.MethodsUp-to-date and past-year breast, cervical, colorectal, and prostate cancer screening prevalences were computed for nonelderly respondents (aged <65 years) with 2000-2018 National Health Interview Survey data. Multivariable logistic regression models with marginal probabilities were used to estimate unemployed-versus-employed unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios.ResultsUnemployed adults (2000-2018) were 4 times more likely to lack insurance than employed adults (41.4% vs 10.0%; P < .001). Unemployed adults had a significantly lower up-to-date prevalence of screening for cervical cancer (78.5% vs 86.2%; P < .001), breast cancer (67.8% vs 77.5%; P < .001), colorectal cancer (41.9 vs 48.5%; P < .001), and prostate cancer (25.4% vs 36.4%; P < .001). These differences were eliminated after accounting for health insurance coverage.ConclusionsUnemployment was adversely associated with up-to-date cancer screening, and this was fully explained by a lack of health insurance. Ensuring the continuation of health insurance coverage after job loss may mitigate the pandemic's economic distress and future economic downturns' impact on cancer screening.