ABSTRACT: Immune correlates of protection against clinical malaria are difficult to ascertain in low-transmission areas because of the limited number of malaria cases. We collected blood samples from 5,753 individuals in a Kenyan highland area, ascertained malaria incidence in this population over the next 6 years, and then compared antibody responses to 11 Plasmodium falciparum vaccine candidate antigens in individuals who did versus did not develop clinical malaria in a nested case-control study (154 cases and 462 controls). Individuals were matched by age and village. Antigens tested included circumsporozoite protein (CSP), liver-stage antigen (LSA)-1, apical membrane antigen-1 FVO and 3D7 strains, erythrocyte-binding antigen-175, erythrocyte-binding protein-2, merozoite surface protein (MSP)-1 FVO and 3D7 strains, MSP-3, and glutamate-rich protein (GLURP) N-terminal non-repetitive (R0) and C-terminal repetitive (R2) regions. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, the presence of antibodies to LSA-1, GLURP-R2, or GLURP-R0 was associated with decreased odds of developing clinical malaria (odds ratio [OR], [95% CI] 0.56 [0.36-0.89], 0.56 [0.36-0.87], and 0.77 [0.43-1.02], respectively). Levels of antibodies to LSA-1, GLURP-R2, and CSP were associated with decreased odds of developing clinical malaria (OR [95% CI]; 0.61 [0.41-0.89], 0.60 [0.43-0.84], and 0.49 [0.24-0.99], for every 10-fold increase in antibody levels, respectively). The presence of antibodies to CSP, GLURP-R0, GLURP-R2, and LSA-1 combined best-predicted protection from clinical malaria. Antibodies to CSP, GLURP-R0, GLURP-R2, and LSA-1 are associated with protection against clinical malaria in a low-transmission setting. Vaccines containing these antigens should be evaluated in low malaria transmission areas.
