Evolution of Human Respiratory Virus Epidemics.

ABSTRACT: While pathogens often evolve towards reduced virulence, many counterexamples are evident. When faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although these approaches accurately recapitulate some complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between mortality and infectivity. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Using a compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity, we reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in c

SUBMITTER: Rochman ND 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7709188 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature