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Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures.

ABSTRACT: Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France's ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.

SUBMITTER: Yang H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7709193 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures.

Yang Haoxiang H Sürer Özge Ö Duque Daniel D Morton David P DP Singh Bismark B Fox Spencer J SJ Pasco Remy R Pierce Kelly K Rathouz Paul P Du Zhanwei Z Pignone Michael M Escott Mark E ME Adler Stephen I SI Johnston S Claiborne SC Meyers Lauren Ancel LA

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20201224

Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing ...[more]

PMID: 33269372

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Project description:ObjectivesPrevious studies have looked at National Early Warning Score performance in predicting in-hospital deterioration and death, but data are lacking with respect to patient outcomes following implementation of National Early Warning Score. We sought to determine the effectiveness of National Early Warning Score implementation on predicting and preventing patient deterioration in a clinical setting.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingTertiary care academic facility and a community hospital.PatientsPatients 18 years old or older hospitalized from March 1, 2014, to February 28, 2015, during preimplementation of National Early Warning Score to August 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016, after National Early Warning Score was implemented.InterventionsImplementation of National Early Warning Score within the electronic health record and associated best practice alert.Measurements and main resultsIn this study of 85,322 patients (42,402 patients pre-National Early Warning Score and 42,920 patients post-National Early Warning Score implementation), the primary outcome of rate of ICU transfer or death did not change after National Early Warning Score implementation, with adjusted hazard ratio of 0.94 (0.84-1.05) and 0.90 (0.77-1.05) at our academic and community hospital, respectively. In total, 175,357 best practice advisories fired during the study period, with the best practice advisory performing better at the community hospital than the academic at predicting an event within 12 hours 7.4% versus 2.2% of the time, respectively. Retraining National Early Warning Score with newly generated hospital-specific coefficients improved model performance.ConclusionsAt both our academic and community hospital, National Early Warning Score had poor performance characteristics and was generally ignored by frontline nursing staff. As a result, National Early Warning Score implementation had no appreciable impact on defined clinical outcomes. Refitting of the model using site-specific data improved performance and supports validating predictive models on local data.

Project description:BackgroundThe adoption of contact tracing apps worldwide has been low. Although considerable research has been conducted on technology acceptance, little has been done to show the benefit of incorporating persuasive principles.ObjectiveThis research aimed to investigate the effect of persuasive features in the COVID Alert app, created by Health Canada, by focusing on the no-exposure status, exposure status, and diagnosis report interfaces.MethodsWe conducted a study among 181 Canadian residents, including 65 adopters and 116 nonadopters. This study was based on screenshots of the 3 interfaces, of which each comprised a persuasive design and a control design. The persuasive versions of the first two interfaces supported self-monitoring (of exposure levels), and that of the third interface supported social learning (about how many other users have reported their diagnosis). The 6 screenshots were randomly assigned to 6 groups of participants to provide feedback on perceived persuasiveness and adoption willingness.ResultsA multivariate repeated-measure ANOVA showed that there is an interaction among interface, app design, and adoption status regarding the perceived persuasiveness of the interfaces. This resulted in a 2-way ANOVA for each interface. For the no-exposure interface, there was an interaction between adoption status and app design. Among adopters, there was no significant difference P=.31 between the persuasive design (mean 5.36, SD 1.63) and the control design (mean 5.87, SD 1.20). However, among nonadopters, there was an effect of app design (P<.001), with participants being more motivated by the persuasive design (mean 5.37, SD 1.30) than by the control design (mean 4.57, SD 1.19). For the exposure interface, adoption status had a main effect (P<.001), with adopters (mean 5.91, SD 1.01) being more motivated by the designs than nonadopters (mean 4.96, SD 1.43). For the diagnosis report interface, there was an interaction between adoption status and app design. Among nonadopters, there was no significant difference P=.99 between the persuasive design (mean 4.61, SD 1.84) and the control design (mean 4.77, SD 1.21). However, among adopters, there was an effect of app design (P=.006), with participants being more likely to report their diagnosis using the persuasive design (mean 6.00, SD 0.97) than using the control design (mean 5.03, SD 1.22). Finally, with regard to willingness to download the app, pairwise comparisons showed that nonadopters were more likely to adopt the app after viewing the persuasive version of the no-exposure interface (13/21, 62% said yes) and the diagnosis report interface (12/17, 71% said yes) than after viewing the control versions (3/17, 18% and 7/16, 44%, respectively, said yes).ConclusionsExposure notification apps are more likely to be effective if equipped with persuasive features. Incorporating self-monitoring into the no-exposure status interface and social learning into the diagnosis report interface can increase adoption by >30%.

Dataset Information

Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures.

Publications

Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures.

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