Study on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the effects of control measures in China.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To reconstruct the transmission trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and analyze the effects of control measures in China.

Methods

Python 3.7.1 was used to write a SEIR class to model the epidemic procedure and proportional estimation method to estimate the initial true infected number. The epidemic area in China was divided into three parts, Wuhan city, Hubei province (except Wuhan) and China (except Hubei) based on the different transmission pattern. A testing capacity limitation factor for medical resources was imposed to model the number of infected but not quarantined individuals. Baidu migration data were used to assess the number of infected individuals who migrated from Wuhan to other areas.

Results

Basic reproduction number, R0, was 3.6 before the city was lock

SUBMITTER: Zhang B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7709801 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature