Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in India and modeling optimal lockdown exit strategies.

ABSTRACT: India imposed one of the world's strictest population-wide lockdowns on March 25, 2020 for COVID-19. We estimated epidemiological parameters, evaluated the effect of control measures on the epidemic in India, and explored strategies to exit lockdown. We obtained patient-level data to estimate the delay from onset to confirmation and the asymptomatic proportion. We estimated the basic and time-varying reproduction number (R₀ and R_t) after adjusting for imported cases and delay to confirmation using incidence data from March 4 to April 25, 2020. Using a SEIR-QDPA model, we simulated lockdown relaxation scenarios and increased testing to evaluate lockdown exit strategies. R₀ for India was estimated to be 2·08, and the R_t decreased from 1·67 on March

SUBMITTER: Gupta M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7713576 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature