An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time.

ABSTRACT: We derive and validate a novel and analytic method for estimating the probability that an epidemic has been eliminated (i.e. that no future local cases will emerge) in real time. When this probability crosses 0.95 an outbreak can be declared over with 95% confidence. Our method is easy to compute, only requires knowledge of the incidence curve and the serial interval distribution, and evaluates the statistical lifetime of the outbreak of interest. Using this approach, we show how the time-varying under-reporting of infected cases will artificially inflate the inferred probability of elimination, leading to premature (false-positive) end-of-epidemic declarations. Contrastingly, we prove that incorrectly identifying imported cases as local will deceptively decrease this probability, resultin

SUBMITTER: Parag KV 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7717584 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature