Revealing two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters in Thailand.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Thailand is home to around 69 million individuals. Dengue is hyper-endemic and all 4 serotypes are in active circulation in the country. Dengue outbreaks occur almost annually within Thailand in at least one province but the spatio-temporal and environmental interface of these outbreaks has not been studied.

Methods

We develop Bayesian regime switching (BRS) models to characterize outbreaks, their persistence and infer their likelihood of occurrence across time for each administrative province where dengue case counts are collected. BRS was compared against two other classification tools and their agreement is assessed. We further examine how these spatio-temporal clusters of outbreak clusters arise by comparing reported dengue case counts, urban population, urban

SUBMITTER: Lim JT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7718674 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature