Retrospective Study on the Seasonal Forecast-Based Disease Intervention of the Wheat Blast Outbreaks in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal disease risk prediction using disease epidemiological models and seasonal forecasts has been actively sought over the last decades, as it has been believed to be a key component in the disease early warning system for the pre-season planning of local or national level disease control. We conducted a retrospective study using the wheat blast outbreaks in Bangladesh, which occurred for the first time in Asia in 2016, to study a what-if scenario that if there was seasonal disease risk prediction at that time, the epidemics could be prevented or reduced through prediction-based interventions. Two factors govern the answer: the seasonal disease risk prediction is accurate enough to use, and there are effective and realistic control measures to be used upon the prediction. In this study

SUBMITTER: Kim KH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7719836 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature