Linking mosquito surveillance to dengue fever through Bayesian mechanistic modeling.

ABSTRACT: Our ability to effectively prevent the transmission of the dengue virus through targeted control of its vector, Aedes aegypti, depends critically on our understanding of the link between mosquito abundance and human disease risk. Mosquito and clinical surveillance data are widely collected, but linking them requires a modeling framework that accounts for the complex non-linear mechanisms involved in transmission. Most critical are the bottleneck in transmission imposed by mosquito lifespan relative to the virus' extrinsic incubation period, and the dynamics of human immunity. We developed a differential equation model of dengue transmission and embedded it in a Bayesian hierarchical framework that allowed us to estimate latent time series of mosquito demographic rates from mosquito trap co

SUBMITTER: Leach CB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7721181 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature