How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: Exponential growth bias is the phenomenon whereby humans underestimate exponential growth. In the context of infectious diseases, this bias may lead to a failure to understand the magnitude of the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Communicating the same scenario in different ways (framing) has been found to have a large impact on people's evaluations and behavior in the contexts of social behavior, risk taking and health care. We find that framing matters for people's assessment of the benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions. In two commonly used frames, most subjects in our experiment drastically underestimate the number of cases avoided by adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions. Framing growth in terms of doubling times rather than growth rates reduces the bias. When t

SUBMITTER: Schonger M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7725369 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature