An Epidemiological Model Considering Isolation to Predict COVID-19 Trends in Tokyo, Japan: Numerical Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 currently poses a global public health threat. Although Tokyo, Japan, is no exception to this, it was initially affected by only a small-level epidemic. Nevertheless, medical collapse nearly happened since no predictive methods were available to assess infection counts. A standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemiological model has been widely used, but its applicability is limited often to the early phase of an epidemic in the case of a large collective population. A full numerical simulation of the entire period from beginning until end would be helpful for understanding COVID-19 trends in (separate) counts of inpatient and infectious cases and can also aid the preparation of hospital beds and development of quarantine strategies.

Objective

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SUBMITTER: Utamura M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7746226 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature