Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model.

ABSTRACT: We established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R₀) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R₀ at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82-5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982-2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative n

SUBMITTER: Guo Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7747602 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature