Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.

ABSTRACT: By analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper bound of th

SUBMITTER: Amaral PHR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7753555 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature