Dataset Information

Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.

ABSTRACT: By analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4% and a prevalence of 2.6%. The geographical distribution of cases and deaths and its ethnic correlation are also presented. This study points out the necessity of governmental and private organizations working together to improve public awareness and stimulate social distancing to curb the viral infection, especially in critical places with high poverty.

SUBMITTER: Amaral PHR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7753555 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.

Amaral Paulo H R PHR Andrade Lidia M LM da Fonseca Flavio G FG Perez Juan Carlos González JCG

Transboundary and emerging diseases 20201128 4

By analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gom ...[more]

PMID: 33188656

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Project description:Brazil accounted for a total number of 1,276,194 reported cases of chikungunya fever between 2014 and 2022. Additionally, since 2015, the country has experienced an increasing death toll, in which the Northeast and Southeast regions appear to report the worst scenarios. Although the CHIKV transmission dynamics have been studied in many parts of the country since its introduction in 2014, little is still known about chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission and genetic diversity in the state of Minas Gerais, located in southeast Brazil. Moreover, no studies have been published characterizing CHIKV genomic surveillance in this state. Thus, to retrospectively explore the CHIKV epidemic in Minas Gerais, we generated 40 genomes from clinical samples using Nanopore sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that multiple introductions of CHIKV occurred, likely from the northeastern Brazilian states, with the most recent common ancestral strain dating to early March 2016, which is in agreement with local epidemiological reports. Additionally, epidemiological data reveals a decline in the number of reported cases from 2017 to 2021, indicating that population immunity or changes in vector activity may have contributed to the decreasing waves of CHIKV infection. Together, our results shed light on the dispersion dynamics of CHIKV and show that infections decreased from March 2017 to January 2021 despite multiple introductions into Minas Gerais State. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of combining genomic and epidemiological data in order to assist public health laboratories in monitoring and understanding the patterns and diversity of mosquito-borne viral epidemics. IMPORTANCE Arbovirus infections in Brazil, including chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika, result in considerable morbidity and mortality and are pressing public health concerns. However, our understanding of these outbreaks is hampered by the limited availability of genomic data. In this study, we combine epidemiological analysis and portable genome sequencing to retrospectively describe the CHIKV epidemic in Minas Gerais between 2017 and 2021. Our results indicate that the East/Central/South African (ECSA) CHIKV lineage was introduced into Minas Gerais by three distinct events, likely from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Our study provides an understanding of how CHIKV initiates transmission in the region and illustrates that genomics in the field can augment traditional approaches to infectious disease surveillance and control.

Dataset Information

Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.

Publications

Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution.

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