Global risk of invasion by Bactrocera zonata: Implications on horticultural crop production under changing climatic conditions.

ABSTRACT: The peach fruit fly Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an important invasive species causing substantial losses to the horticulture industry worldwide. Despite the severe economic impact caused by this pest in its native and invaded range, information on its potential range expansion under changing climate remains largely unknown. In this study, we employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach to predict the global potential climatic suitability of B. zonata under current climate and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the year 2050. Outputs from MaxEnt were merged with Spatial Production Allocation Model. A natural dispersal model using Gaussian dispersal kernel was developed. The Areas Under Curves generated by MaxEnt were greater than 0.92 for

SUBMITTER: Zingore KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7757907 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature