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Projected Impact of Concurrently Available Long-Acting Injectable and Daily-Oral Human Immunodeficiency Virus Preexposure Prophylaxis: A Mathematical Model.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Long-acting injectable (LAI) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is reportedly efficacious, although full trial results have not been published. We used a dynamic network model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men to assess the population impact of LAI-PrEP when available concurrently with daily-oral (DO) PrEP.

Methods

The reference model represents the current HIV epidemiology and DO-PrEP coverage (15% among those with behavioral indications for PrEP) among men who have sex with men in the southeastern United States. Primary analyses investigated varied PrEP uptake and proportion selecting LAI-PrEP. Secondary analyses evaluated uncertainty in pharmacokinetic efficacy and LAI-PrEP persistence relative to DO-PrEP.

Results

Compared with the reference scenario, if 50% chose LAI-PrEP, 4.3% (95% simulation interval, -7.3% to 14.5%) of infections would be averted over 10 years. The impact of LAI-PrEP is slightly greater than that of the DO-PrEP-only regimen, based on assumptions of higher adherence and partial protection after discontinuation. If the total PrEP initiation rate doubled, 17.1% (95% simulation interval, 6.7%-26.4%) of infections would be averted. The highest population-level impact occurred when LAI-PrEP uptake and persistence improved.

Conclusions

If LAI-PrEP replaces DO-PrEP, its availability will modestly improve the population impact. LAI-PrEP will make a more substantial impact if its availability drives higher total PrEP coverage, or if persistence is greater for LAI-PrEP.

SUBMITTER: Maloney KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7781468 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected Impact of Concurrently Available Long-Acting Injectable and Daily-Oral Human Immunodeficiency Virus Preexposure Prophylaxis: A Mathematical Model.

Maloney Kevin M KM   Le Guillou Adrien A   Driggers Robert A RA   Sarkar Supriya S   Anderson Emeli J EJ   Malik Amyn A AA   Jenness Samuel M SM  

The Journal of infectious diseases 20210101 1


<h4>Background</h4>Long-acting injectable (LAI) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is reportedly efficacious, although full trial results have not been published. We used a dynamic network model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men to assess the population impact of LAI-PrEP when available concurrently with daily-oral (DO) PrEP.<h4>Methods</h4>The reference model represents the current HIV epidemiology and DO-PrEP coverage (15% among those with behav  ...[more]

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