On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem.

ABSTRACT: Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview o

SUBMITTER: van Beest FM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7782639 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature