Relaxation of social distancing restrictions: Model estimated impact on COVID-19 epidemic in Manitoba, Canada.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The unprecedented worldwide social distancing response to COVID-19 resulted in a quick reversal of escalating case numbers. Recently, local governments globally have begun to relax social distancing regulations. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we estimated the impact that social distancing relaxation may have on the pandemic.

Methods

We fit a mathematical model to empirically estimated numbers of people infected, recovered, and died from COVID-19 in Manitoba. We then explored the impact of social distancing relaxation on: (a) time until near elimination of COVID-19 (< one case per million), (b) time until peak prevalence, (c) proportion of the population infected within one year, (d) peak prevalence, and (e) deaths within one year.

Result

SUBMITTER: Shafer LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7787456 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature