Development and validation of prediction model to estimate 10-year risk of all-cause mortality using modern statistical learning methods: a large population-based cohort study and external validation.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In increasingly ageing populations, there is an emergent need to develop a robust prediction model for estimating an individual absolute risk for all-cause mortality, so that relevant assessments and interventions can be targeted appropriately. The objective of the study was to derive, evaluate and validate (internally and externally) a risk prediction model allowing rapid estimations of an absolute risk of all-cause mortality in the following 10 years.

Methods

For the model development, data came from English Longitudinal Study of Ageing study, which comprised 9154 population-representative individuals aged 50-75 years, 1240 (13.5%) of whom died during the 10-year follow-up. Internal validation was carried out using Harrell's optimism-correction procedure; extern

SUBMITTER: Ajnakina O 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7789636 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature