A Computational Modeling Study of COVID-19 in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally. Only three cases in Bangladesh were reported on March 8, 2020. Here, we aim to predict the epidemic progression for 1 year under different scenarios in Bangladesh. We extracted the number of daily confirmed cases from March 8 to July 20, 2020. We considered the suspected-infected-removed (SIR) model and performed a maximum likelihood-based grid search to determine the removal rate (ɣ). The transmission was modeled as a stochastic random walk process, and sequential Monte Carlo simulation was run 100 times with bootstrap fits to infer the transmission rate (β) and R _t. According to the simulation, the (real) peak daily incidence of 3,600 would be followed by a steady decline, reaching below 1,000 in late January 2021. Thus, the mo

SUBMITTER: Khan IM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7790066 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature