Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Pediatric Septic Shock Using Data Known 2 Hours After Hospital Arrival.
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SUBMITTER: Scott HF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7790844 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Pediatric Septic Shock Using Data Known 2 Hours After Hospital Arrival.
Scott Halden F HF Colborn Kathryn L KL Sevick Carter J CJ Bajaj Lalit L Deakyne Davies Sara J SJ Fairclough Diane D Kissoon Niranjan N Kempe Allison A
Pediatric critical care medicine : a journal of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies 20210101 1
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Project description:ObjectiveTo derive and validate a model of risk of septic shock among children with suspected sepsis, using data known in the electronic health record at hospital arrival.Study designThis observational cohort study at 6 pediatric emergency department and urgent care sites used a training dataset (5 sites, April 1, 2013, to December 31, 2016), a temporal test set (5 sites, January 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018), and a geographic test set (a sixth site, April 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018). Patients 60 days to 18 years of age in whom clinicians suspected sepsis were included; patients with septic shock on arrival were excluded. The outcome, septic shock, was systolic hypotension with vasoactive medication or ≥30 mL/kg of isotonic crystalloid within 24 hours of arrival. Elastic net regularization, a penalized regression technique, was used to develop a model in the training set.ResultsOf 2464 included visits, septic shock occurred in 282 (11.4%). The model had an area under the curve of 0.79 (0.76-0.83) in the training set, 0.75 (0.69-0.81) in the temporal test set, and 0.87 (0.73-1.00) in the geographic test set. With a threshold set to 90% sensitivity in the training set, the model yielded 82% (72%-90%) sensitivity and 48% (44%-52%) specificity in the temporal test set, and 90% (55%-100%) sensitivity and 32% (21%-46%) specificity in the geographic test set.ConclusionsThis model estimated the risk of septic shock in children at hospital arrival earlier than existing models. It leveraged the predictive value of routine electronic health record data through a modern predictive algorithm and has the potential to enhance clinical risk stratification in the critical moments before deterioration.
| S-EPMC6980682 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In an ongoing translational research program involving microarray-based expression profiles in pediatric septic shock, we have now conducted longitudinal studies focused on the temporal expression profiles of canonical signaling pathways and gene networks. Genome-level expression profiles were generated from whole blood-derived RNA samples of children with septic shock (n = 30 individual patients) corresponding to days 1 and 3 of admission to the pediatric intensive care unit. Based on sequential statistical and expression filters, day 1 and day 3 of septic shock were characterized by differential regulation of 2,142 and 2,504 gene probes, respectively, relative to normal control patients. Venn analysis demonstrated 239 unique genes in the day 1 data set, 598 unique genes in the day 3 data set, and 1,906 genes common to both data sets. Analyses targeted toward derivation of biological function from these data sets demonstrated time-dependent, differential regulation of genes involved in multiple canonical signaling pathways and gene networks primarily related to immunity and inflammation. Notably, multiple and distinct gene networks involving T cell- and MHC antigen-related biological processes were persistently downregulated from day 1 to day 3. Further analyses demonstrated large scale and persistent downregulation of genes corresponding to functional annotations related to zinc homeostasis. These data represent the largest reported cohort of patients with septic shock, which has undergone longitudinal genome-level expression profiling. The data further advance our genome-level understanding of pediatric septic shock and support novel hypotheses that can be readily tested at both the experimental and translational levels. Keywords: Inflammation; sepsis; innate immunity; T cells; MHC antigen Keywords: to be updated
2007-06-14 | GSE8121 | GEO
Project description:Rationale: We previously generated genome-wide expression data in children with septic shock, based on whole blood-derive RNA, having the potential to lead the field into novel areas of investigation. Objective: Herein we seek to validate our data through a bioinformatic approach centered on a validation patient cohort. Methods: Microarray- and bioinformatics-centered analyses involving our previous data as a training data set (n = 42) and a new, validation cohort (n = 30) as the test data set. Measurements and Main Results: Class prediction modeling using the training data set and the previously reported genome-wide expression signature of pediatric septic shock correctly identified 93 to 100% of septic shock patients in the test data set, depending on the class prediction algorithm and the gene selection method. Subjecting the test data set to an identical filtering strategy as that used for the training data set, demonstrated 72% concordance between the two gene lists. Subjecting the test data set to a purely statistical filtering strategy, with highly stringent correction for multiple comparisons, demonstrated less than 50% concordance with the previous gene filtering strategy. However, functional analysis of this statistics-based gene list demonstrated similar functional annotations and signaling pathways as that seen in the learning data set. In particular, we validated that pediatric septic shock is characterized by large scale repression of genes related to zinc homeostasis and lymphocyte function. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that the previously reported genome-wide expression signature of pediatric septic shock is applicable to a validation cohort of patients. Keywords: Inflammation; sepsis; innate immunity; T cells; MHC antigen; zinc
2007-12-01 | GSE9692 | GEO
Project description:ObjectiveSeptic shock heterogeneity has important implications for clinical trial implementation and patient management. We previously addressed this heterogeneity by identifying three putative subclasses of children with septic shock based exclusively on a 100-gene expression signature. Here we attempted to prospectively validate the existence of these gene expression-based subclasses in a validation cohort.DesignProspective observational study involving microarray-based bioinformatics.SettingMultiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States.PatientsSeparate derivation (n = 98) and validation (n = 82) cohorts of children with septic shock.InterventionsNone other than standard care.Measurements and main resultsGene expression mosaics of the 100 class-defining genes were generated for 82 individual patients in the validation cohort. Using computer-based image analysis, patients were classified into one of three subclasses ("A," "B," or "C") based on color and pattern similarity relative to reference mosaics generated from the original derivation cohort. After subclassification, the clinical database was mined for phenotyping. Subclass A patients had higher illness severity relative to subclasses B and C as measured by maximal organ failure, fewer intensive care unit-free days, and a higher Pediatric Risk of Mortality score. Patients in subclass A were characterized by repression of genes corresponding to adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. Separate subclass assignments were conducted by 21 individual clinicians using visual inspection. The consensus classification of the clinicians had modest agreement with the computer algorithm.ConclusionsWe have validated the existence of subclasses of children with septic shock based on a biologically relevant, 100-gene expression signature. The subclasses have relevant clinical differences.
| S-EPMC3196776 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Septic shock heterogeneity has important implications for the conduct of clinical trials and individual patient management. We previously addressed this heterogeneity by indentifying 3 putative subclasses of children with septic shock based on a 100-gene expression signature corresponding to adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. Herein we attempted to prospectively validate the existence of these gene expression-based subclasses in a validation cohort. Methods: Gene expression mosaics were generated from the 100 class-defining genes for 82 individual patients in the validation cohort. Patients were classified into 1 of 3 subclasses (“A”, “B”, or “C”) based on color and pattern similarity relative to reference mosaics generated from the original derivation cohort. Separate classifications were conducted by 21 individual clinicians and a computer-based algorithm. After subclassification the clinical database was mined for clinical phenotyping. Results: In the final consensus subclassification generated by clinicians, subclass A patients had a higher illness severity, as measured by illness severity scores and maximal organ failure, relative to subclasses B and C. The k coefficient across all possible inter-evaluator comparisons was 0.633. Similar observations were made based on the computer-generated subclassification. Patients in subclass A were also characterized by repression of a large number of genes having functional annotations related to zinc biology. Conclusions: We have validated the existence of subclasses of children with septic shock based on a biologically relevant, 100-gene expression signature. The subclasses can be indentified by clinicians without formal bioinformatics training, at a clinically relevant time point, and have clinically relevant phenotypic differences.
2011-01-13 | GSE26378 | GEO
Project description:Rationale: We previously generated genome-wide expression data in children with septic shock, based on whole blood-derive RNA, having the potential to lead the field into novel areas of investigation. Objective: Herein we seek to validate our data through a bioinformatic approach centered on a validation patient cohort. Methods: Microarray- and bioinformatics-centered analyses involving our previous data as a training data set (n = 42) and a new, validation cohort (n = 30) as the test data set. Measurements and Main Results: Class prediction modeling using the training data set and the previously reported genome-wide expression signature of pediatric septic shock correctly identified 93 to 100% of septic shock patients in the test data set, depending on the class prediction algorithm and the gene selection method. Subjecting the test data set to an identical filtering strategy as that used for the training data set, demonstrated 72% concordance between the two gene lists. Subjecting the test data set to a purely statistical filtering strategy, with highly stringent correction for multiple comparisons, demonstrated less than 50% concordance with the previous gene filtering strategy. However, functional analysis of this statistics-based gene list demonstrated similar functional annotations and signaling pathways as that seen in the learning data set. In particular, we validated that pediatric septic shock is characterized by large scale repression of genes related to zinc homeostasis and lymphocyte function. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that the previously reported genome-wide expression signature of pediatric septic shock is applicable to a validation cohort of patients. Experiment Overall Design: Table 1: Clinical and demographic data for all subjects in test data set. Experiment Overall Design: Controls Septic Shock Experiment Overall Design: No. of individual subjects 15 30 Experiment Overall Design: Mean age (years) ± S.D. 3.1 ± 3.5 3.2 ± 2.9 Experiment Overall Design: Mean PRISM Score ± S.D. n/a 18.9 ± 12.3 Experiment Overall Design: Gender (Male/Female) 8/7 16/14 Experiment Overall Design: Race (no.) A.A./Black (6) A.A./Black (2) Experiment Overall Design: Asian (4) White (26) White (5) Unreported (2)
2008-06-20 | E-GEOD-9692 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:ImportanceThe Society of Critical Care Medicine Pediatric Sepsis Definition Task Force sought to develop and validate new clinical criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock using measures of organ dysfunction through a data-driven approach.ObjectiveTo derive and validate novel criteria for pediatric sepsis and septic shock across differently resourced settings.Design, setting, and participantsMulticenter, international, retrospective cohort study in 10 health systems in the US, Colombia, Bangladesh, China, and Kenya, 3 of which were used as external validation sites. Data were collected from emergency and inpatient encounters for children (aged <18 years) from 2010 to 2019: 3 049 699 in the development (including derivation and internal validation) set and 581 317 in the external validation set.ExposureStacked regression models to predict mortality in children with suspected infection were derived and validated using the best-performing organ dysfunction subscores from 8 existing scores. The final model was then translated into an integer-based score used to establish binary criteria for sepsis and septic shock.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome for all analyses was in-hospital mortality. Model- and integer-based score performance measures included the area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC; primary) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC; secondary). For binary criteria, primary performance measures were positive predictive value and sensitivity.ResultsAmong the 172 984 children with suspected infection in the first 24 hours (development set; 1.2% mortality), a 4-organ-system model performed best. The integer version of that model, the Phoenix Sepsis Score, had AUPRCs of 0.23 to 0.38 (95% CI range, 0.20-0.39) and AUROCs of 0.71 to 0.92 (95% CI range, 0.70-0.92) to predict mortality in the validation sets. Using a Phoenix Sepsis Score of 2 points or higher in children with suspected infection as criteria for sepsis and sepsis plus 1 or more cardiovascular point as criteria for septic shock resulted in a higher positive predictive value and higher or similar sensitivity compared with the 2005 International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) criteria across differently resourced settings.Conclusions and relevanceThe novel Phoenix sepsis criteria, which were derived and validated using data from higher- and lower-resource settings, had improved performance for the diagnosis of pediatric sepsis and septic shock compared with the existing IPSCC criteria.
| S-EPMC10900964 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rationale: Acute kidney injury (AKI), a common complication of sepsis, is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality and lacks definitive disease-modifying therapy. Early, reliable identification of at-risk patients is important for targeted implementation of renal protective measures. The updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE-II) is a validated, multibiomarker prognostic enrichment strategy to estimate baseline mortality risk in pediatric septic shock.Objectives: To assess the association between PERSEVERE-II mortality probability and the development of severe, sepsis-associated AKI on Day 3 (D3 SA-AKI) in pediatric septic shock.Methods: We performed secondary analysis of a prospective observational study of children with septic shock in whom the PERSEVERE biomarkers were measured to assign a PERSEVERE-II baseline mortality risk.Measurements and Main Results: Among 379 patients, 65 (17%) developed severe D3 SA-AKI. The proportion of patients developing severe D3 SA-AKI increased directly with increasing PERSEVERE-II risk category, and increasing PERSEVERE-II mortality probability was independently associated with increased odds of severe D3 SA-AKI after adjustment for age and illness severity (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.7; P < 0.001). Similar associations were found between increasing PERSEVERE-II mortality probability and the need for renal replacement therapy. Lower PERSEVERE-II mortality probability was independently associated with increased odds of renal recovery among patients with early AKI. A newly derived model incorporating the PERSEVERE biomarkers and Day 1 AKI status predicted severe D3 SA-AKI with an area under the received operating characteristic curve of 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.98).Conclusions: Among children with septic shock, the PERSEVERE biomarkers predict severe D3 SA-AKI and identify patients with early AKI who are likely to recover.
| S-EPMC7124707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Septic shock heterogeneity has important implications for the conduct of clinical trials and individual patient management. We previously addressed this heterogeneity by indentifying 3 putative subclasses of children with septic shock based on a 100-gene expression signature corresponding to adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. Herein we attempted to prospectively validate the existence of these gene expression-based subclasses in a validation cohort. Methods: Gene expression mosaics were generated from the 100 class-defining genes for 82 individual patients in the validation cohort. Patients were classified into 1 of 3 subclasses (“A”, “B”, or “C”) based on color and pattern similarity relative to reference mosaics generated from the original derivation cohort. Separate classifications were conducted by 21 individual clinicians and a computer-based algorithm. After subclassification the clinical database was mined for clinical phenotyping. Results: In the final consensus subclassification generated by clinicians, subclass A patients had a higher illness severity, as measured by illness severity scores and maximal organ failure, relative to subclasses B and C. The k coefficient across all possible inter-evaluator comparisons was 0.633. Similar observations were made based on the computer-generated subclassification. Patients in subclass A were also characterized by repression of a large number of genes having functional annotations related to zinc biology. Conclusions: We have validated the existence of subclasses of children with septic shock based on a biologically relevant, 100-gene expression signature. The subclasses can be indentified by clinicians without formal bioinformatics training, at a clinically relevant time point, and have clinically relevant phenotypic differences. Expression data from 82 children with septic shock and 21 normal controls were generated using whole blood-derived RNA samples representing the first 24 hours of admission to the pediatric intensive care unit. The controls were used for normalization. Subsequently, we used the expression data from 100 class defining genes to validate the existence of pediatric septic shock subclasses having phenotypic differences.
2011-01-13 | E-GEOD-26378 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:ObjectivesPediatric septic shock continues to be an important public health problem. Several investigative groups have applied genetic and genomic approaches as a means of identifying novel pathways and therapeutic targets, discovery of sepsis-related biomarkers, and identification of septic shock subclasses. This review will highlight studies in pediatric sepsis with a focus on gene association studies and genome-wide expression profiling.Data sourcesA summary of published literature involving gene association and expression profiling studies specifically involving pediatric sepsis and septic shock.SummarySeveral polymorphisms of genes broadly involved in inflammation, immunity, and coagulation have been linked with susceptibility to sepsis, or outcome of sepsis in children. Many of these studies involve meningococcemia, and the strongest association involves a functional polymorphism of the plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 promoter region and meningococcal sepsis. Expression profiling studies in pediatric septic shock have identified zinc supplementation and inhibition of matrix metalloproteinase-8 activity as potential, novel therapeutic approaches in sepsis. Studies focused on discovery of sepsis-related biomarkers have identified interleukin-8 as a robust outcome biomarker in pediatric septic shock. Additional studies have demonstrated the feasibility and clinical relevance of gene expression-based subclassification of pediatric septic shock.ConclusionsPediatric sepsis and septic shock are increasingly being studied by genetic and genomic approaches and the accumulating data hold the promise of enhancing our future approach to this ongoing clinical problem.
| S-EPMC3329642 | biostudies-literature