Risk of Secondary Infection Waves of COVID-19 in an Insular Region: The Case of the Balearic Islands, Spain.

ABSTRACT: The Spanish government declared the lockdown on March 14th, 2020 to tackle the fast-spreading of COVID-19. As a consequence, the Balearic Islands remained almost fully isolated due to the closing of airports and ports, these isolation measures and the home-based confinement have led to a low prevalence of COVID-19 in this region. We propose a compartmental model for the spread of COVID-19 including five compartments (Susceptible, Exposed, Presymptomatic Infective, Diseased, and Recovered), and the mobility between municipalities. The model parameters are calibrated with the temporal series of confirmed cases provided by the Spanish Ministry of Health. After calibration, the proposed model captures the trend of the official confirmed cases before and after the lockdown. We show that the est

SUBMITTER: Eguiluz VM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7793821 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature