Can Oncologists Predict the Efficacy of Treatments in Randomized Trials?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Decisions about trial funding, ethical approval, or clinical practice guideline recommendations require expert judgments about the potential efficacy of new treatments. We tested whether individual and aggregated expert opinion of oncologists could predict reliably the efficacy of cancer treatments tested in randomized controlled trials.

Materials and methods

An international sample of 137 oncologists specializing in genitourinary, lung, and colorectal cancer provided forecasts on primary outcome attainment for five active randomized cancer trials within their subspecialty; skill was assessed using Brier scores (BS), which measure the average squared deviation between forecasts and outcomes.

Results

A total of 40% of trials in our sample reported positive p

SUBMITTER: Benjamin DM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7794184 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature