Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case.

Design

Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths.

Setting

SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making.

Participants

Publicly available data on patients with COVID-19.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

The expected numbers of i

SUBMITTER: Booton RD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7797241 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature