Short-term real-time prediction of total number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in South Africa: a data driven approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The rising burden of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa has motivated the application of modeling strategies to predict the COVID-19 cases and deaths. Reliable and accurate short and long-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, both at the national and provincial level, are a key aspect of the strategy to handle the COVID-19 epidemic in the country.

Methods

In this paper we apply the previously validated approach of phenomenological models, fitting several non-linear growth curves (Richards, 3 and 4 parameter logistic, Weibull and Gompertz), to produce short term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths at the national level as well as the provincial level. Using publicly available daily reported cumulative case and death data up until 22 June 2020,

SUBMITTER: Reddy T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7797353 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature