Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Methods

We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection.

Results

We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-ex

SUBMITTER: Pinotti F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7801230 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature