Human-driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather.

ABSTRACT: Attribution studies have identified a robust anthropogenic fingerprint in increased 21^st century wildfire risk. However, the risks associated with individual aspects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, biomass burning and land use/land cover change remain unknown. Here, we use new climate model large ensembles isolating these influences to show that GHG-driven increases in extreme fire weather conditions have been balanced by aerosol-driven cooling throughout the 20th century. This compensation is projected to disappear due to future reductions in aerosol emissions, causing unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century as GHGs continue to rise. Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme f

SUBMITTER: Touma D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7801713 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature