Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Countries have restricted international arrivals to delay the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These measures carry a high economic and social cost, and might have little effect on COVID-19 epidemics if there are many more cases resulting from local transmission compared with imported cases. Our study aims to investigate the extent to which imported cases contribute to local transmission under different epidemic conditions.

Methods

To inform decisions about international travel restrictions, we calculated the ratio of expected COVID-19 cases from international travel (assuming no travel restrictions) to expected cases arising from internal spread, expressed as a proportion, on an average day in May and September, 2020, in eac

SUBMITTER: Russell TW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7801817 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature