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Tracking [Formula: see text] of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the Kalman filter.

ABSTRACT: We develop a new method for estimating the effective reproduction number of an infectious disease ([Formula: see text]) and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on the fact that in the SIR model, [Formula: see text] is linearly related to the growth rate of the number of infected individuals. This time-varying growth rate is estimated using the Kalman filter from data on new cases. The method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and it performs well even when the number of infected individuals is imperfectly measured, or the infection does not follow the SIR model. Our estimates of [Formula: see text] for COVID-19 for 124 countries across the world are provided in an interactive online dashboard, and they are used to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in a sample of 14 European countries.

SUBMITTER: Arroyo-Marioli F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7806155 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tracking R of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the Kalman filter.

Arroyo-Marioli Francisco F Bullano Francisco F Kucinskas Simas S Rondón-Moreno Carlos C

PloS one 20210113 1

We develop a new method for estimating the effective reproduction number of an infectious disease (R) and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on the fact that in the SIR model, R is linearly related to the growth rate of the number of infected individuals. This time-varying growth rate is estimated using the Kalman filter from data on new cases. The method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and it performs well even when the number of infected indi ...[more]

PMID: 33439880

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Project description:The experimental value for the isospin amplitude [Formula: see text] in [Formula: see text] decays has been successfully explained within the standard model (SM), both within the large [Formula: see text] approach to QCD and by QCD lattice calculations. On the other hand within the large [Formula: see text] approach the value of [Formula: see text] is by at least [Formula: see text] below the data. While this deficit could be the result of theoretical uncertainties in this approach and could be removed by future precise QCD lattice calculations, it cannot be excluded that the missing piece in [Formula: see text] comes from new physics (NP). We demonstrate that this deficit can be significantly softened by tree-level FCNC transitions mediated by a heavy colourless [Formula: see text] gauge boson with a flavour-violating left-handed coupling [Formula: see text] and an approximately universal flavour diagonal right-handed coupling [Formula: see text] to the quarks. The approximate flavour universality of the latter coupling assures negligible NP contributions to [Formula: see text]. This property, together with the breakdown of the GIM mechanisms at tree level, allows one to enhance significantly the contribution of the leading QCD-penguin operator [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A large fraction of the missing piece in the [Formula: see text] rule can be explained in this manner for [Formula: see text] in the reach of the LHC, while satisfying the constraints from [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], LEP-II and the LHC. The presence of a small right-handed flavour-violating coupling [Formula: see text] and of enhanced matrix elements of [Formula: see text] left-right operators allows one to satisfy simultaneously the constraints from [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], although this requires some fine-tuning. We identify the quartic correlation between [Formula: see text] contributions to [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. The tests of this proposal will require much improved evaluations of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] within the SM, of [Formula: see text] as well as precise tree-level determinations of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. We present correlations between [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] with and without the [Formula: see text] rule constraint and generalise the whole analysis to [Formula: see text] with colour ([Formula: see text]) and [Formula: see text] with FCNC couplings. In the latter case no improvement on [Formula: see text] can be achieved without destroying the agreement of the SM with the data on [Formula: see text]. Moreover, this scenario is very tightly constrained by [Formula: see text]. On the other hand, in the context of the [Formula: see text] rule [Formula: see text] is even more effective than [Formula: see text]: it provides the missing piece in [Formula: see text] for [Formula: see text]-[Formula: see text].

Project description:The Josephson effect in point contacts between an "ordinary" superconductor [Formula: see text]In[Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and single crystals of the Fe-based superconductor Ba[Formula: see text]K[Formula: see text](FeAs)[Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]), was investigated. In order to shed light on the order parameter symmetry of Ba[Formula: see text]K[Formula: see text](FeAs)[Formula: see text], the dependence of the Josephson supercurrent [Formula: see text] on the temperature and on [Formula: see text] with [Formula: see text] was studied. The dependencies of the critical current on temperature [Formula: see text] and of the amplitudes of the first current steps of the current-voltage characteristic [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] on the power of microwave radiation with frequency [Formula: see text] were measured. It is shown that the dependencies [Formula: see text] are close to the well-known Ambegaokar-Baratoff (AB) dependence for tunnel contacts between "ordinary" superconductors and to the dependence calculated by Burmistrova et al. (Phys Rev B 91, 214501 (2015)) for microshorts between an "ordinary" superconductor and a two-band superconductor with [Formula: see text] order parameter symmetry at certain values of the transparency of boundaries and thickness of the transition layer. It is found that the dependencies [Formula: see text] cannot be approximated within the resistively shunted model using the normalized microwave frequencies [Formula: see text] with characteristic voltages [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]-normal resistance of the contact) found from the low-voltage parts of the current-voltage characteristics. The reasons for this failure are discussed and a method is proposed for accurately determining the value of [Formula: see text], which takes into account all the features of the point contact affecting the period of the dependence [Formula: see text]. An analysis of the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] dependencies shows that the superconducting current of the Josephson contacts under investigation is proportional to the [Formula: see text] of the phase difference [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]. The implications of these results on the symmetry of the order parameter are also discussed.

Project description:Although mechanically interlocked molecules (MIMs) display unique properties and functions associated with their intricate connectivity, limited assembly strategies are available for their synthesis. Herein, we presented a synergistic assembly strategy based on coordination and noncovalent interactions (π-π stacking and CH⋯π interactions) to selectively synthesize molecular closed three-link chains ([Formula: see text] links), highly entangled figure-eight knots ([Formula: see text] knots), trefoil knot ([Formula: see text] knot), and Borromean ring ([Formula: see text] link). [Formula: see text] links can be created by the strategic assembly of nonlinear multicurved ligands incorporating a furan or phenyl group with the long binuclear half-sandwich organometallic Cp*RhIII (Cp* = η5-pentamethylcyclopentadienyl) clip. However, utilizing much shorter binuclear Cp*RhIII units for union with the 2,6-naphthyl-containing ligand led to a [Formula: see text] knot because of the increased π-π stacking interactions between four consecutive stacked layers and CH⋯π interactions. Weakening such π-π stacking interactions resulted in a [Formula: see text] knot. The universality of this synergistic assembly strategy for building [Formula: see text] knots was verified by utilizing a 1,5-naphthyl-containing ligand. Quantitative conversion between the [Formula: see text] knot and the simple macrocycle species was accomplished by adjusting the concentrations monitored by NMR spectroscopy and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). Furthermore, increasing the stiff π-conjugated area of the binuclear unit afforded molecular Borromean ring, and this topology is a topological isomer of the [Formula: see text] link. These artificial metalla-links and metalla-knots were confirmed by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, NMR and ESI-MS. The results offer a potent strategy for building higher-order MIMs and emphasize the critical role that noncovalent interactions play in creating sophisticated topologies.

Dataset Information

Tracking [Formula: see text] of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the Kalman filter.

Publications

Tracking R of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the Kalman filter.

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