Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States.

ABSTRACT: We use COVID-19 case and mortality data from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States at the state level from 22 September 2020 through 28 February 2021. Using this SEIR model, and projections of critical driving covariates (pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates and mask use per capita), we assessed scenarios of social distancing mandates and levels of mask use. Projections of current non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies by state-with social distancing mandates reinstated when a threshold of 8 deaths per mi

SUBMITTER: IHME COVID-19 Forecasting Team 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7806509 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature