How can contemporary climate research help understand epidemic dynamics? Ensemble approach and snapshot attractors.

ABSTRACT: Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed upon a monotonic decay needs a different description from that of the standard chaotic dynamics. The concept of snapshot attractors and their natural distribution has been adopted from the field of the latest climate change research. This shows the importance of the finite-time chaotic effect and ensemble interpretation while investigating the spread of a disease. By defining statistical measures over the ensemble, we can interpret the internal variability of the epidemic as the onset of complex dynamics-even for those values of contact parameters where originally regular behavio

SUBMITTER: Kovacs T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7811587 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature