Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for Sao Paulo-Brazil.

ABSTRACT: With COVID-19 surging across the world, understanding the effectiveness of intervention strategies on transmission dynamics is of primary global health importance. Here, we develop and analyze an epidemiological compartmental model using multi-objective genetic algorithm design optimization to compare scenarios related to strategy type, the extent of social distancing, time window, and personal protection levels on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate that the optimal strategy for São Paulo is to reduce social distancing over time with a stepping-down reduction in the magnitude of social distancing every 80-days. Our results also indicate that the ability to reduce social distancing depends on a 5-10% increase in the current percentage of people

SUBMITTER: Pinto Neto O 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7814036 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature