Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices.

ABSTRACT: The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950-2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their

SUBMITTER: Nouri N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7814142 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature