Estimating under-reporting of COVID-19 cases in Indian states: an approach using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to all states in India. Due to limitations in testing coverage, the true extent of the spread may not be fully reflected in the reported cases. In this study, we obtain time-varying estimates of the fraction of COVID-19 infections reported in the different states.

Methods

Following a methodology developed in prior work, we use a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate the true fraction of cases reported in different states. We also develop a delay adjusted test positivity estimation method and study the relationship between the estimated test positivity rate for each state and the estimated fraction of cases reported.

Setting

We apply this method of analysis to all Indian states reporting at least 100 deaths as of 10

SUBMITTER: Unnikrishnan J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7818846 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature