A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

ABSTRACT: According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening h

SUBMITTER: Skinner A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7820504 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature