Exponential Damping: The Key to Successful Containment of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Due to its excessive capacity for human-to-human transmission, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has now been declared a global public health emergency. Here we propose a simple model based on exponential infectious growth, but with a time-varying, largely damping, transmission rate. This model provides an excellent fit to the existing data for 46 countries with 10,000+ cases by 16 May 2020, five continents and the entire world. Hence, the model has largely captured the transmission patterns of the COVID-19 outbreak under a variety of intervention and control measures. The damping rate ranged from -0.0228 to 0.1669 d^-1 globally (a negative damping rate represents acceleration in spread) and can greatly affect the duration of the outbreak and the eventual number of infectio

SUBMITTER: Zhang F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7820870 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature