An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model forecasts COVID-19 onset risk and identifies spatiotemporal variations of lockdown effects in China.

ABSTRACT: It is important to forecast the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset and thereby evaluate how effectively the city lockdown measure could reduce this risk. This study is a first comprehensive, high-resolution investigation of spatiotemporal heterogeneities on the effect of the Wuhan lockdown on the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset in all 347 Chinese cities. An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model was developed to predict the COVID-19 onset risk under two scenarios (i.e., with and without the Wuhan lockdown). The Wuhan lockdown, compared with the scenario without lockdown implementation, in general, delayed the arrival of the COVID-19 onset risk peak for 1-2 days and lowered risk peak values among all cities. The decrease of the onset risk attributed to the lockdown was more than 8% in o

SUBMITTER: Shi W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7835364 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature