Was school closure effective in mitigating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time series analysis using Bayesian inference.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is causing significant damage to many nations. For mitigating its risk, Japan called on all elementary, junior high, and high schools nationwide to close beginning March 1, 2020. However, its effectiveness in decreasing the disease burden has not been investigated.

Methods

We used daily data of the COVID-19 and coronavirus infection incidence in Japan until March 31, 2020. Time-series analyses were conducted using the Bayesian method. Local linear trend models with interventional effects were constructed for the number of newly reported cases of COVID-19, including asymptomatic infections. We considered that the effects of the intervention started to appear nine days after the school closure.

Results

The inte

SUBMITTER: Iwata K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7836901 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature