The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

Methods

Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002-3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R₀), and time-varying reproduction number (R_t) of COVID-19 and SARS.

Results

As of 20 March 2020, 80,739 locally acquired COVID-19 cases were identified in mainland China, with most cases reported between 20 January and 29 February 2020. The R₀ value of COVID-19

SUBMITTER: Xiao J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7836966 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature