The Bayesian Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for the outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship provides an unprecedented opportunity to estimate its original transmissibility with basic reproductive number (R₀) and the effectiveness of containment measures. We developed an ordinary differential equation-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery (SEIR) model with Bayesian underpinning to estimate the main parameter of R₀ determined by transmission coefficients, incubation period, and the recovery rate. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method was used to tackle the parameters of uncertainty resulting from the outbreak of COVID-19 given a small cohort of the cruise ship. The extended stratified SEIR model was also proposed to elucidate the heterogeneity of transmission route by the l

SUBMITTER: Lai CC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7837082 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature