A novel COVID-19 epidemiological model with explicit susceptible and asymptomatic isolation compartments reveals unexpected consequences of timing social distancing.

ABSTRACT: Motivated by the current COVID-19 epidemic, this work introduces an epidemiological model in which separate compartments are used for susceptible and asymptomatic "socially distant" populations. Distancing directives are represented by rates of flow into these compartments, as well as by a reduction in contacts that lessens disease transmission. The dynamical behavior of this system is analyzed, under various different rate control strategies, and the sensitivity of the basic reproduction number to various parameters is studied. One of the striking features of this model is the existence of a critical implementation delay (CID) in issuing distancing mandates: while a delay of about two weeks does not have an appreciable effect on the peak number of infections, issuing mandates even slightl

SUBMITTER: Gevertz JL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7840295 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature