Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures.

ABSTRACT:

Background

SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression.

Methods

We use

SUBMITTER: Khailaie S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7840427 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature