More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century.

ABSTRACT: Separating how model-to-model differences in the forced response (U_MD) and internal variability (U_IV) contribute to the uncertainty in climate projections is important, but challenging. Reducing U_MD increases confidence in projections, while U_IV characterises the range of possible futures that might occur purely by chance. Separating these uncertainties is limited in traditional multi-model ensembles because most models have only a small number of realisations; furthermore, some models are not independent. Here, we use six largely independent single model initial-condition large ensembles to separate the contributions of U_MD and U_IV in projecting 21st-century changes of temperature, precipitation, and their temporal variabil

SUBMITTER: Maher N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7862648 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature