How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To estimate future palliative care need and complexity of need in Scotland, and to identify priorities for future service delivery.

Design

We estimated the prevalence of palliative care need by analysing the proportion of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses. We described linear projections up to 2040 using national death registry data and official mortality forecasts. An expert consultation and subsequent online consensus survey generated recommendations on meeting future palliative care need.

Setting

Scotland, population of 5.4 million.

Participants

All decedents in Scotland over 11 years (2007 to 2017). The consultation had 34 participants; 24 completed the consensus survey.

Primary and secondary outcomes

Estimates of past and f

SUBMITTER: Finucane AM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7868264 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature